Global overview
Economic risk, measured the same way in every country
Macroeconomic Risk Index turns five macro indicators — inflation, real GDP growth, GDP per capita, unemployment and the central-bank policy rate — into one transparent 0–100 risk score per country, then publishes its own forecast of where that score is heading. Every weight, scale and formula is documented, and every forward number is labelled as a model estimate.
Global average risk score
Low risk (20–40)
- 0–20 Very Low
- 20–40 Low
- 40–60 Moderate
- 60–80 High
- 80–100 Very High
- Countries tracked
- 60
- Actual observations
- 123194
- Forecast global risk
- 22.7
- Change vs now
- ↑ 0.8
Unweighted mean of the country scores currently in the platform. As countries are added this value changes composition, so it is a platform aggregate rather than a population-weighted world index. Last automatic refresh 2026-08-22 14:25 UTC.
Highest risk
🇮🇷 Iran
69.8 / 100
Lowest risk
🇮🇪 Ireland
3.0 / 100
Back-tested forecasts
1421
369 within 0.5 of the release
Editorial highlights
6
Reviewed 19 August 2026, 09:30 UTC
Countries
Select a country for its full dashboard: indicator history, charts, forecasts and forecast accuracy.
🇺🇸United States
Americas · USD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.9%
- GDP growth
- 2.2%
- Unemployment
- 4.2%
- Interest rate
- 3.63%
- GDP per capita
- $90,027
Forecast risk12.2↑ 1.0
🇨🇳China
Asia · CNY · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.1%
- GDP growth
- 5.0%
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- Interest rate
- 4.35%
- GDP per capita
- $13,862
Forecast risk15.4↑ 1.9
🇩🇪Germany
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.2%
- GDP growth
- 0.2%
- Unemployment
- 3.7%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $60,496
Forecast risk13.5↑ 1.8
🇯🇵Japan
Asia · JPY · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.2%
- GDP growth
- 1.2%
- Unemployment
- 2.5%
- Interest rate
- 0.99%
- GDP per capita
- $35,951
Forecast risk13.8↑ 1.6
🇬🇧United Kingdom
Europe · GBP · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.9%
- GDP growth
- 1.4%
- Unemployment
- 4.7%
- Interest rate
- 0.50%
- GDP per capita
- $57,602
Forecast risk15.9↑ 1.2
🇮🇳India
Asia · INR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.4%
- GDP growth
- 7.6%
- Unemployment
- 4.2%
- Interest rate
- 8.57%
- GDP per capita
- $2,702
Forecast risk12.5↓ 2.1
🇫🇷France
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.9%
- GDP growth
- 0.8%
- Unemployment
- 7.5%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $48,986
Forecast risk19.5↑ 0.9
🇮🇹Italy
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.5%
- GDP growth
- 0.5%
- Unemployment
- 6.4%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $43,309
Forecast risk17.7↑ 1.1
🇷🇺Russia
Europe · RUB · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 8.7%
- GDP growth
- 1.0%
- Unemployment
- 2.1%
- Interest rate
- 17.09%
- GDP per capita
- $17,547
Forecast risk33.8↓ 1.3
🇧🇷Brazil
Americas · BRL · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 5.0%
- GDP growth
- 2.3%
- Unemployment
- 6.0%
- Interest rate
- 45.33%
- GDP per capita
- $10,713
Forecast risk29.4↓ 6.8
🇨🇦Canada
Americas · CAD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.1%
- GDP growth
- 1.7%
- Unemployment
- 6.9%
- Interest rate
- 2.70%
- GDP per capita
- $55,698
Forecast risk17.2↑ 2.9
🇦🇺Australia
Oceania · AUD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.9%
- GDP growth
- 1.4%
- Unemployment
- 4.1%
- Interest rate
- 5.10%
- GDP per capita
- $65,130
Forecast risk13.5↓ 0.1
🇲🇽Mexico
Americas · MXN · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.8%
- GDP growth
- 0.6%
- Unemployment
- 2.7%
- Interest rate
- 8.79%
- GDP per capita
- $13,889
Forecast risk20.2↓ 0.9
🇪🇸Spain
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.7%
- GDP growth
- 2.8%
- Unemployment
- 10.4%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $38,627
Forecast risk15.9↓ 3.4
🇰🇷South Korea
Asia · KRW · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.1%
- GDP growth
- 1.0%
- Unemployment
- 2.7%
- Interest rate
- 4.19%
- GDP per capita
- $36,227
Forecast risk13.0↑ 1.2
🇹🇷Turkey
Europe · TRY · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 34.9%
- GDP growth
- 3.6%
- Unemployment
- 8.5%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $18,599
Forecast risk50.4↓ 3.0
🇮🇩Indonesia
Asia · IDR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.9%
- GDP growth
- 5.1%
- Unemployment
- 3.2%
- Interest rate
- 8.50%
- GDP per capita
- $5,060
Forecast risk12.9↑ 0.3
🇳🇱Netherlands
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.3%
- GDP growth
- 1.8%
- Unemployment
- 3.9%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $73,684
Forecast risk11.2→ 0.0
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
Middle East · SAR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.1%
- GDP growth
- 4.5%
- Unemployment
- 3.0%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $34,537
Forecast risk9.9↑ 4.4
🇨🇭Switzerland
Europe · CHF · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.2%
- GDP growth
- 1.3%
- Unemployment
- 4.9%
- Interest rate
- 2.98%
- GDP per capita
- $114,769
Forecast risk17.2↑ 2.3
🇵🇱Poland
Europe · PLN · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.8%
- GDP growth
- 3.6%
- Unemployment
- 3.0%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $28,420
Forecast risk11.3↓ 0.5
🇮🇪Ireland
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.2%
- GDP growth
- 12.3%
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $131,592
Forecast risk2.6↓ 0.4
🇧🇪Belgium
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.5%
- GDP growth
- 1.0%
- Unemployment
- 5.9%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $60,750
Forecast risk16.7↑ 2.3
🇸🇪Sweden
Europe · SEK · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.7%
- GDP growth
- 1.5%
- Unemployment
- 8.7%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $63,133
Forecast risk26.3↑ 4.0
🇮🇱Israel
Middle East · ILS · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.0%
- GDP growth
- 2.9%
- Unemployment
- 3.5%
- Interest rate
- 2.96%
- GDP per capita
- $60,337
Forecast risk12.4↑ 3.3
🇦🇷Argentina
Americas · ARS · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 219.9%
- GDP growth
- 4.4%
- Unemployment
- 7.1%
- Interest rate
- 46.02%
- GDP per capita
- $14,898
Forecast risk56.0↓ 1.6
🇸🇬Singapore
Asia · SGD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.9%
- GDP growth
- 5.0%
- Unemployment
- 2.8%
- Interest rate
- 5.25%
- GDP per capita
- $98,814
Forecast risk5.1↓ 0.8
🇦🇹Austria
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.5%
- GDP growth
- 0.6%
- Unemployment
- 5.6%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $62,930
Forecast risk19.5↑ 2.9
🇦🇪United Arab Emirates
Middle East · AED · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.3%
- GDP growth
- 4.0%
- Unemployment
- 2.2%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $50,274
Forecast risk5.9↓ 1.0
🇳🇴Norway
Europe · NOK · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.1%
- GDP growth
- 1.1%
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- Interest rate
- 5.88%
- GDP per capita
- $94,594
Forecast risk17.9↑ 2.7
🇹🇭Thailand
Asia · THB · Official APIs
- Inflation
- -0.1%
- GDP growth
- 2.4%
- Unemployment
- 0.8%
- Interest rate
- 3.94%
- GDP per capita
- $8,057
Forecast risk20.2↑ 3.5
🇨🇴Colombia
Americas · COP · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 5.1%
- GDP growth
- 2.6%
- Unemployment
- 8.3%
- Interest rate
- 14.31%
- GDP per capita
- $8,562
Forecast risk35.8↑ 3.0
🇻🇳Vietnam
Asia · VND · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.3%
- GDP growth
- 8.0%
- Unemployment
- 1.5%
- Interest rate
- 9.32%
- GDP per capita
- $5,066
Forecast risk14.4↑ 0.7
🇲🇾Malaysia
Asia · MYR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.4%
- GDP growth
- 5.2%
- Unemployment
- 3.8%
- Interest rate
- 4.82%
- GDP per capita
- $13,125
Forecast risk11.4↑ 1.7
🇵🇭Philippines
Asia · PHP · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.7%
- GDP growth
- 4.4%
- Unemployment
- 2.2%
- Interest rate
- 7.10%
- GDP per capita
- $4,171
Forecast risk16.2↑ 2.8
🇧🇩Bangladesh
Asia · BDT · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 8.8%
- GDP growth
- 3.5%
- Unemployment
- 3.8%
- Interest rate
- 8.62%
- GDP per capita
- $2,597
Forecast risk36.9↑ 5.9
🇩🇰Denmark
Europe · DKK · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.9%
- GDP growth
- 2.9%
- Unemployment
- 5.5%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $76,970
Forecast risk11.9↑ 1.2
🇷🇴Romania
Europe · RON · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 7.2%
- GDP growth
- 0.7%
- Unemployment
- 6.0%
- Interest rate
- 8.52%
- GDP per capita
- $22,538
Forecast risk33.5↑ 2.7
🇭🇰Hong Kong SAR
Asia · HKD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.4%
- GDP growth
- 3.5%
- Unemployment
- 2.8%
- Interest rate
- 5.18%
- GDP per capita
- $56,983
Forecast risk4.6↓ 3.5
🇨🇿Czechia
Europe · CZK · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.5%
- GDP growth
- 2.6%
- Unemployment
- 2.8%
- Interest rate
- 4.67%
- GDP per capita
- $35,917
Forecast risk14.6↑ 4.4
🇪🇬Egypt
Africa · EGP · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 14.1%
- GDP growth
- 4.4%
- Unemployment
- 6.8%
- Interest rate
- 24.29%
- GDP per capita
- $3,086
Forecast risk62.1↑ 7.8
🇨🇱Chile
Americas · CLP · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 4.2%
- GDP growth
- 2.5%
- Unemployment
- 9.0%
- Interest rate
- 4.18%
- GDP per capita
- $17,995
Forecast risk20.4↓ 3.6
🇵🇰Pakistan
Asia · PKR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 3.5%
- GDP growth
- 3.7%
- Unemployment
- 5.4%
- Interest rate
- 8.67%
- GDP per capita
- $1,596
Forecast risk26.2↑ 2.4
🇵🇪Peru
Americas · PEN · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.5%
- GDP growth
- 3.4%
- Unemployment
- 5.1%
- Interest rate
- 12.60%
- GDP per capita
- $9,684
Forecast risk21.1↑ 1.0
🇵🇹Portugal
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.3%
- GDP growth
- 1.9%
- Unemployment
- 6.2%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $32,082
Forecast risk16.1↑ 1.6
🇳🇬Nigeria
Africa · NGN · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 23.0%
- GDP growth
- 4.0%
- Unemployment
- 3.1%
- Interest rate
- 14.01%
- GDP per capita
- $1,224
Forecast risk48.2↓ 2.6
🇰🇿Kazakhstan
Asia · KZT · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 11.4%
- GDP growth
- 6.5%
- Unemployment
- 4.8%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $14,692
Forecast risk31.2↑ 1.5
🇫🇮Finland
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.3%
- GDP growth
- 0.2%
- Unemployment
- 9.5%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $56,149
Forecast risk27.8↑ 4.3
🇩🇿Algeria
Africa · DZD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.4%
- GDP growth
- 3.8%
- Unemployment
- 11.6%
- Interest rate
- 8.00%
- GDP per capita
- $6,051
Forecast risk26.6↓ 0.7
🇬🇷Greece
Europe · EUR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.5%
- GDP growth
- 2.1%
- Unemployment
- 8.5%
- Interest rate
- 2.25%
- GDP per capita
- $26,948
Forecast risk13.9↓ 4.4
🇮🇷Iran
Middle East · IRR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 42.2%
- GDP growth
- -2.8%
- Unemployment
- 8.3%
- Interest rate
- 18.00%
- GDP per capita
- $3,924
Forecast risk70.2↑ 0.4
🇳🇿New Zealand
Oceania · NZD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.8%
- GDP growth
- 0.5%
- Unemployment
- 5.1%
- Interest rate
- 4.76%
- GDP per capita
- $49,591
Forecast risk19.0↑ 2.2
🇭🇺Hungary
Europe · HUF · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 4.4%
- GDP growth
- 0.5%
- Unemployment
- 4.5%
- Interest rate
- 8.01%
- GDP per capita
- $25,907
Forecast risk27.5↑ 4.8
🇮🇶Iraq
Middle East · IQD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.3%
- GDP growth
- -2.2%
- Unemployment
- 15.5%
- Interest rate
- 12.29%
- GDP per capita
- $5,410
Forecast risk54.3↑ 6.1
🇺🇦Ukraine
Europe · UAH · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 12.7%
- GDP growth
- 1.8%
- Unemployment
- 9.8%
- Interest rate
- 19.70%
- GDP per capita
- $5,866
Forecast risk45.5↓ 10.5
🇶🇦Qatar
Middle East · QAR · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 1.3%
- GDP growth
- 2.9%
- Unemployment
- 0.1%
- Interest rate
- 4.75%
- GDP per capita
- $72,525
Forecast risk7.5↓ 1.1
🇨🇺Cuba
Americas · CUP · Official APIs
- Inflation
- Data unavailable
- GDP growth
- -1.1%
- Unemployment
- 1.7%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $9,605
Forecast risk34.9↑ 4.7
🇲🇦Morocco
Africa · MAD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 0.7%
- GDP growth
- 4.6%
- Unemployment
- 9.0%
- Interest rate
- Data unavailable
- GDP per capita
- $4,672
Forecast risk23.0↓ 0.8
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
Asia · UZS · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 8.8%
- GDP growth
- 7.7%
- Unemployment
- 4.6%
- Interest rate
- 23.13%
- GDP per capita
- $3,968
Forecast risk31.8↓ 4.8
🇰🇼Kuwait
Middle East · KWD · Official APIs
- Inflation
- 2.4%
- GDP growth
- 2.7%
- Unemployment
- 2.2%
- Interest rate
- 5.03%
- GDP per capita
- $32,312
Forecast risk15.0↑ 4.8
Indicator snapshot across countries
Latest published actual value per indicator. Periods differ by country and release calendar.
| Country | Risk | Inflation | GDP Growth | GDP per Capita | Unemployment | Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 69.8 | 42.2% | 8.3% | -2.8% | 18.00% | $3,924 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 57.7 | 219.9% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 46.02% | $14,898 |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 56.0 | 12.7% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 19.70% | $5,866 |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | 54.4 | 14.1% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 24.29% | $3,086 |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 53.5 | 34.9% | 8.5% | 3.6% | n/a | $18,599 |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 50.8 | 23.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 14.01% | $1,224 |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 48.2 | 0.3% | 15.5% | -2.2% | 12.29% | $5,410 |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 36.6 | 8.8% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 23.13% | $3,968 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 36.2 | 5.0% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 45.33% | $10,713 |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 35.1 | 8.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 17.09% | $17,547 |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 32.8 | 5.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 14.31% | $8,562 |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 31.0 | 8.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 8.62% | $2,597 |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 30.8 | 7.2% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 8.52% | $22,538 |
| 🇨🇺 Cuba | 30.2 | n/a | 1.7% | -1.1% | n/a | $9,605 |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 29.7 | 11.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | n/a | $14,692 |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 27.3 | 1.4% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 8.00% | $6,051 |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 23.9 | 4.2% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.18% | $17,995 |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 23.8 | 0.7% | 9.0% | 4.6% | n/a | $4,672 |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 23.8 | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 8.67% | $1,596 |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | 23.5 | 0.3% | 9.5% | 0.2% | 2.25% | $56,149 |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 22.7 | 4.4% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 8.01% | $25,907 |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 22.3 | 0.7% | 8.7% | 1.5% | n/a | $63,133 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 21.1 | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 8.79% | $13,889 |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 20.1 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 12.60% | $9,684 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 19.4 | 2.7% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 2.25% | $38,627 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 18.7 | 0.9% | 7.5% | 0.8% | 2.25% | $48,986 |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 18.3 | 2.5% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 2.25% | $26,948 |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 16.9 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 0.5% | 4.76% | $49,591 |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | 16.7 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 3.94% | $8,057 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 16.6 | 1.5% | 6.4% | 0.5% | 2.25% | $43,309 |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 16.5 | 3.5% | 5.6% | 0.6% | 2.25% | $62,930 |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 15.2 | 3.1% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 5.88% | $94,594 |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 14.9 | 0.2% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 2.98% | $114,769 |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 14.8 | 3.9% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.50% | $57,602 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 14.6 | 2.4% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 8.57% | $2,702 |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 14.5 | 2.3% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 2.25% | $32,082 |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 14.4 | 2.5% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 2.25% | $60,750 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 14.3 | 2.1% | 6.9% | 1.7% | 2.70% | $55,698 |
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 13.7 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 8.0% | 9.32% | $5,066 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 13.6 | 2.9% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 5.10% | $65,130 |
| 🇨🇳 China | 13.5 | 0.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.35% | $13,862 |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 13.4 | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 7.10% | $4,171 |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 12.5 | 1.9% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 8.50% | $5,060 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 12.2 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.99% | $35,951 |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 11.8 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | n/a | $28,420 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 11.8 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 4.19% | $36,227 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 11.8 | 2.2% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 2.25% | $60,496 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 11.2 | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.25% | $73,684 |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 11.1 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 3.63% | $90,027 |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | 10.8 | 1.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | n/a | $76,970 |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 10.2 | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.03% | $32,312 |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia | 10.2 | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.67% | $35,917 |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 9.7 | 1.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.82% | $13,125 |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 9.2 | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.96% | $60,337 |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | 8.6 | 1.3% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 4.75% | $72,525 |
| 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR | 8.2 | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.18% | $56,983 |
| 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates | 6.9 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 4.0% | n/a | $50,274 |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 5.9 | 0.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.25% | $98,814 |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 5.5 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | n/a | $34,537 |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 3.0 | 2.2% | 4.6% | 12.3% | 2.25% | $131,592 |
Global economic highlights
All highlights →Curated editorial summaries — separate from the indicator data. Last reviewed 19 August 2026, 09:30 UTC.
Growth
Rupture and resilience: a more fragmented global economy
PIMCO's secular outlook argues that the post-2020 world is defined by rupture — in trade, in supply chains and in security arrangements — yet economies have proved more resilient than the shocks implied. The practical consequence for macro analysis is a wider distribution of outcomes: baseline growth forecasts matter less than the width of the range around them, which is exactly why this platform publishes a forecast band rather than a single number.
PIMCO — Secular Outlook · 2025 · 9 min read
Monetary policy
Central banks are easing at very different speeds
The tracked economies are on visibly different monetary paths. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been cutting in small steps while inflation sits modestly above target; the Bank of Russia and the National Bank of Kazakhstan are easing from double-digit rates that remain deeply restrictive; the People's Bank of China faces the opposite problem and is loosening against near-zero consumer prices. Divergent policy rates are the single largest source of dispersion in the risk scores on this site.
Macroeconomic Risk Index — model commentary · 19 August 2026 · 4 min read
Inflation
China's problem is too little inflation, not too much
Chinese consumer prices have oscillated around zero, with several outright negative prints. Persistent deflation is not a benign outcome: it raises real debt burdens, delays consumption and blunts the effect of rate cuts. In the risk framework used here, deflation is penalised in the same way as excess inflation, because both are deviations from price stability — which is why China does not score zero on the inflation component despite the low headline number.
Macroeconomic Risk Index — model commentary · 19 August 2026 · 3 min read
Did you know?
A country can grow quickly and still carry high economic risk. Kazakhstan's recent real growth has outpaced the United States several times over, yet its risk score is higher — because inflation and a double-digit policy rate weigh more heavily in the index than headline growth.
Source: Macroeconomic Risk Index calculation
Russia's key rate reached 21% in late 2024 — roughly five times the Federal Reserve's target rate at the same moment. Two economies can face nearly opposite monetary conditions in the same quarter.
Source: Bank of Russia / Federal Reserve via Trading Economics
China's GDP per capita is roughly a sixth of the United States' in current dollars, even though its total economy is the world's second largest. Aggregate size and living standards are entirely different measurements.
Source: World Bank national accounts