Forecasts
Forecasts and how accurate they have been
Model
Damped-trend OLS with momentum blend
Forecast horizon: 3 periods at each series' own publication frequency
Fitting window
8 observations
Momentum weight 0.45 · damping 0.82
Back-tested periods
1421
369 landed within 0.5 of the release
Last data refresh
2026-08-22 14:25 UTC
Automatic weekly refresh · 123,409 observations written in the last run
Accuracy by indicator (all countries pooled)
Walk-forward back-test: the model is re-fitted using only the observations available before each evaluated period, then compared with the value later published. Errors are in the indicator's own units.
| Indicator | MAE | RMSE | Periods evaluated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 4.05 | 8.24 | 293 |
| Unemployment | 0.65 | 0.93 | 300 |
| GDP Growth | 3.97 | 6.30 | 300 |
| Interest Rate | 1.57 | 4.80 | 228 |
| GDP per Capita | 2466.67 | 4589.22 | 300 |
GDP per capita is an annual series, so its error is measured in dollars and is not comparable with the percentage-point errors of the other indicators.
Next forecast per country
First forecast period for each indicator, plus the risk score implied by the full 3-period-ahead path.
Risk now 11.1 → forecast 12.2↑ 1.0
Inflation
2.9% → 3.7%
2025 · range 1.1% – 6.4%
Unemployment
4.2% → 4.2%
2026 · range 2.1% – 6.2%
GDP Growth
2.2% → 2.4%
2026 · range -0.7% – 5.5%
Interest Rate
3.63% → 3.62%
Aug 2026 · range 3.59% – 3.65%
GDP per Capita
$90,027 → $94,116
2026 · range $91,248 – $96,984
Risk now 13.5 → forecast 15.4↑ 1.9
Inflation
0.1% → -0.5%
2026 · range -1.3% – 0.3%
Unemployment
4.6% → 4.6%
2026 · range 4.3% – 4.9%
GDP Growth
5.0% → 5.0%
2026 · range 2.4% – 7.7%
Interest Rate
4.35% → 4.35%
2025 · range 4.33% – 4.37%
GDP per Capita
$13,862 → $14,422
2026 · range $13,667 – $15,177
Risk now 11.8 → forecast 13.5↑ 1.8
Inflation
2.2% → 2.4%
2026 · range -0.5% – 5.4%
Unemployment
3.7% → 3.7%
2026 · range 3.3% – 4.1%
GDP Growth
0.2% → -0.1%
2026 · range -3.3% – 3.1%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$60,496 → $62,040
2026 · range $59,410 – $64,670
Risk now 12.2 → forecast 13.8↑ 1.6
Inflation
3.2% → 3.6%
2026 · range 2.3% – 4.8%
Unemployment
2.5% → 2.5%
2026 · range 2.2% – 2.7%
GDP Growth
1.2% → 1.2%
2026 · range -1.8% – 4.2%
Interest Rate
0.99% → 0.91%
2018 · range 0.89% – 0.93%
GDP per Capita
$35,951 → $34,696
2026 · range $32,178 – $37,214
Risk now 14.8 → forecast 15.9↑ 1.2
Inflation
3.9% → 4.2%
2026 · range 1.2% – 7.1%
Unemployment
4.7% → 4.8%
2026 · range 4.3% – 5.4%
GDP Growth
1.4% → 1.3%
2026 · range -5.9% – 8.6%
Interest Rate
0.50% → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$57,602 → $59,369
2026 · range $56,194 – $62,543
Risk now 14.6 → forecast 12.5↓ 2.1
Inflation
2.4% → 2.6%
2026 · range 0.6% – 4.6%
Unemployment
4.2% → 3.6%
2026 · range 2.7% – 4.6%
GDP Growth
7.6% → 8.1%
2026 · range 1.9% – 14.3%
Interest Rate
8.57% → 8.36%
2023 · range 8.17% – 8.55%
GDP per Capita
$2,702 → $2,814
2026 · range $2,692 – $2,936
Risk now 18.7 → forecast 19.5↑ 0.9
Inflation
0.9% → 1.2%
2026 · range -1.2% – 3.6%
Unemployment
7.5% → 7.3%
2026 · range 6.9% – 7.7%
GDP Growth
0.8% → 1.0%
2026 · range -4.5% – 6.4%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$48,986 → $50,078
2026 · range $47,601 – $52,555
Risk now 16.6 → forecast 17.7↑ 1.1
Inflation
1.5% → 1.6%
2026 · range -2.3% – 5.4%
Unemployment
6.4% → 5.8%
2026 · range 5.3% – 6.2%
GDP Growth
0.5% → 0.7%
2026 · range -6.2% – 7.5%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$43,309 → $44,539
2026 · range $42,033 – $47,045
Risk now 35.1 → forecast 33.8↓ 1.3
Inflation
8.7% → 8.9%
2026 · range 5.1% – 12.8%
Unemployment
2.1% → 1.7%
2026 · range 0.9% – 2.5%
GDP Growth
1.0% → 2.1%
2026 · range -2.0% – 6.2%
Interest Rate
17.09% → 17.44%
2025 · range 13.80% – 21.07%
GDP per Capita
$17,547 → $17,964
2026 · range $16,290 – $19,637
Risk now 36.2 → forecast 29.4↓ 6.8
Inflation
5.0% → 4.9%
2026 · range 1.8% – 7.9%
Unemployment
6.0% → 5.0%
2026 · range 3.1% – 7.0%
GDP Growth
2.3% → 2.8%
2026 · range -0.2% – 5.9%
Interest Rate
45.33% → 45.87%
2026 · range 39.16% – 52.57%
GDP per Capita
$10,713 → $10,984
2026 · range $9,657 – $12,312
Risk now 14.3 → forecast 17.2↑ 2.9
Inflation
2.1% → 2.0%
2026 · range -0.4% – 4.5%
Unemployment
6.9% → 6.9%
2026 · range 4.9% – 8.9%
GDP Growth
1.7% → 1.7%
2026 · range -2.7% – 6.1%
Interest Rate
2.70% → 2.60%
2018 · range 2.52% – 2.69%
GDP per Capita
$55,698 → $57,233
2026 · range $53,272 – $61,193
Risk now 13.6 → forecast 13.5↓ 0.1
Inflation
2.9% → 3.2%
2026 · range 0.8% – 5.6%
Unemployment
4.1% → 3.8%
2026 · range 2.9% – 4.7%
GDP Growth
1.4% → 1.2%
2026 · range -0.7% – 3.1%
Interest Rate
5.10% → 4.83%
2020 · range 4.51% – 5.16%
GDP per Capita
$65,130 → $66,698
2026 · range $62,444 – $70,952
Risk now 21.1 → forecast 20.2↓ 0.9
Inflation
3.8% → 3.8%
2026 · range 1.8% – 5.8%
Unemployment
2.7% → 2.5%
2026 · range 1.8% – 3.2%
GDP Growth
0.6% → 1.0%
2026 · range -4.8% – 6.8%
Interest Rate
8.79% → 9.62%
2026 · range 6.94% – 12.31%
GDP per Capita
$13,889 → $14,753
2026 · range $13,367 – $16,140
Risk now 19.4 → forecast 15.9↓ 3.4
Inflation
2.7% → 2.7%
2026 · range -0.6% – 6.0%
Unemployment
10.4% → 9.8%
2026 · range 8.7% – 10.9%
GDP Growth
2.8% → 3.1%
2026 · range -4.2% – 10.4%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$38,627 → $39,604
2026 · range $36,794 – $42,413
Risk now 11.8 → forecast 13.0↑ 1.2
Inflation
2.1% → 2.3%
2026 · range 0.5% – 4.2%
Unemployment
2.7% → 2.5%
2026 · range 2.1% – 2.8%
GDP Growth
1.0% → 0.9%
2026 · range -1.2% – 3.0%
Interest Rate
4.19% → 4.49%
2026 · range 3.59% – 5.40%
GDP per Capita
$36,227 → $36,612
2026 · range $35,036 – $38,187
Risk now 53.5 → forecast 50.4↓ 3.0
Inflation
34.9% → 41.6%
2026 · range 17.3% – 65.9%
Unemployment
8.5% → 7.9%
2026 · range 6.3% – 9.5%
GDP Growth
3.6% → 4.0%
2026 · range -0.5% – 8.5%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$18,599 → $19,689
2026 · range $17,546 – $21,832
Risk now 12.5 → forecast 12.9↑ 0.3
Inflation
1.9% → 1.8%
2026 · range 0.5% – 3.1%
Unemployment
3.2% → 3.1%
2026 · range 2.7% – 3.4%
GDP Growth
5.1% → 5.2%
2026 · range 1.8% – 8.5%
Interest Rate
8.50% → 8.24%
2026 · range 7.72% – 8.75%
GDP per Capita
$5,060 → $5,241
2026 · range $5,019 – $5,464
Risk now 11.2 → forecast 11.2→ 0.0
Inflation
3.3% → 3.1%
2026 · range -0.5% – 6.6%
Unemployment
3.9% → 3.9%
2026 · range 3.5% – 4.2%
GDP Growth
1.8% → 1.3%
2026 · range -3.1% – 5.6%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$73,684 → $76,136
2026 · range $72,825 – $79,448
Risk now 5.5 → forecast 9.9↑ 4.4
Inflation
2.1% → 2.2%
2026 · range 0.3% – 4.1%
Unemployment
3.0% → 2.5%
2026 · range 1.2% – 3.9%
GDP Growth
4.5% → 3.7%
2026 · range -2.5% – 9.9%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$34,537 → $35,631
2026 · range $30,996 – $40,266
Risk now 14.9 → forecast 17.2↑ 2.3
Inflation
0.2% → 0.3%
2026 · range -1.3% – 1.8%
Unemployment
4.9% → 4.8%
2026 · range 4.3% – 5.3%
GDP Growth
1.3% → 1.1%
2026 · range -2.3% – 4.5%
Interest Rate
2.98% → 3.00%
2025 · range 2.89% – 3.12%
GDP per Capita
$114,769 → $118,744
2026 · range $115,289 – $122,199
Risk now 11.8 → forecast 11.3↓ 0.5
Inflation
3.8% → 4.3%
2026 · range -1.7% – 10.3%
Unemployment
3.0% → 2.8%
2026 · range 2.5% – 3.1%
GDP Growth
3.6% → 2.8%
2026 · range -1.3% – 6.9%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$28,420 → $30,093
2026 · range $28,098 – $32,088
Risk now 3.0 → forecast 2.6↓ 0.4
Inflation
2.2% → 2.6%
2026 · range -1.0% – 6.1%
Unemployment
4.6% → 4.4%
2026 · range 3.6% – 5.3%
GDP Growth
12.3% → 10.5%
2026 · range 2.6% – 18.4%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$131,592 → $136,693
2026 · range $129,959 – $143,427
Risk now 14.4 → forecast 16.7↑ 2.3
Inflation
2.5% → 2.4%
2026 · range -1.3% – 6.0%
Unemployment
5.9% → 5.9%
2026 · range 5.5% – 6.3%
GDP Growth
1.0% → 0.9%
2026 · range -3.5% – 5.3%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$60,750 → $62,643
2026 · range $60,030 – $65,256
Risk now 22.3 → forecast 26.3↑ 4.0
Inflation
0.7% → 1.2%
2026 · range -3.1% – 5.6%
Unemployment
8.7% → 9.0%
2026 · range 8.1% – 9.9%
GDP Growth
1.5% → 1.3%
2026 · range -1.5% – 4.2%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$63,133 → $63,735
2026 · range $59,706 – $67,764
Risk now 9.2 → forecast 12.4↑ 3.3
Inflation
3.0% → 3.5%
2026 · range 1.8% – 5.2%
Unemployment
3.5% → 3.4%
2026 · range 2.9% – 4.0%
GDP Growth
2.9% → 2.3%
2026 · range -2.3% – 7.0%
Interest Rate
2.96% → 2.90%
2023 · range 2.72% – 3.08%
GDP per Capita
$60,337 → $61,951
2026 · range $58,820 – $65,082
Risk now 57.7 → forecast 56.0↓ 1.6
Inflation
219.9% → 238.9%
2025 · range 189.3% – 288.5%
Unemployment
7.1% → 6.6%
2026 · range 4.9% – 8.3%
GDP Growth
4.4% → 4.2%
2026 · range -4.0% – 12.4%
Interest Rate
46.02% → 52.46%
2026 · range 24.54% – 80.39%
GDP per Capita
$14,898 → $15,434
2026 · range $13,390 – $17,477
Risk now 5.9 → forecast 5.1↓ 0.8
Inflation
0.9% → 1.4%
2026 · range -1.5% – 4.2%
Unemployment
2.8% → 2.7%
2026 · range 2.0% – 3.5%
GDP Growth
5.0% → 5.5%
2026 · range 0.3% – 10.7%
Interest Rate
5.25% → 5.22%
2022 · range 5.19% – 5.26%
GDP per Capita
$98,814 → $103,245
2026 · range $95,457 – $111,033
Risk now 16.5 → forecast 19.5↑ 2.9
Inflation
3.5% → 3.9%
2026 · range 0.4% – 7.3%
Unemployment
5.6% → 5.7%
2026 · range 5.0% – 6.4%
GDP Growth
0.6% → -0.2%
2026 · range -5.3% – 5.0%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$62,930 → $64,422
2026 · range $61,446 – $67,399
Risk now 6.9 → forecast 5.9↓ 1.0
Inflation
1.3% → 1.1%
2026 · range -2.2% – 4.4%
Unemployment
2.2% → 2.1%
2026 · range 1.1% – 3.1%
GDP Growth
4.0% → 4.9%
2025 · range -1.1% – 10.8%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$50,274 → $51,433
2025 · range $46,438 – $56,429
Risk now 15.2 → forecast 17.9↑ 2.7
Inflation
3.1% → 3.3%
2026 · range 1.4% – 5.2%
Unemployment
4.6% → 4.7%
2026 · range 4.0% – 5.3%
GDP Growth
1.1% → 0.9%
2026 · range -1.6% – 3.4%
Interest Rate
5.88% → 6.53%
2026 · range 5.33% – 7.73%
GDP per Capita
$94,594 → $94,493
2026 · range $79,079 – $109,907
Risk now 16.7 → forecast 20.2↑ 3.5
Inflation
-0.1% → -0.5%
2026 · range -3.4% – 2.4%
Unemployment
0.8% → 0.8%
2026 · range 0.5% – 1.0%
GDP Growth
2.4% → 2.5%
2026 · range -1.9% – 6.8%
Interest Rate
3.94% → 4.10%
2026 · range 3.34% – 4.86%
GDP per Capita
$8,057 → $8,064
2026 · range $7,594 – $8,534
Risk now 32.8 → forecast 35.8↑ 3.0
Inflation
5.1% → 6.1%
2026 · range 2.1% – 10.1%
Unemployment
8.3% → 8.2%
2026 · range 4.9% – 11.6%
GDP Growth
2.6% → 2.3%
2026 · range -4.9% – 9.4%
Interest Rate
14.31% → 15.71%
2026 · range 11.37% – 20.06%
GDP per Capita
$8,562 → $8,754
2026 · range $7,810 – $9,698
Risk now 13.7 → forecast 14.4↑ 0.7
Inflation
3.3% → 3.3%
2026 · range 2.6% – 4.1%
Unemployment
1.5% → 1.6%
2026 · range 1.1% – 2.1%
GDP Growth
8.0% → 7.5%
2026 · range 4.3% – 10.7%
Interest Rate
9.32% → 9.46%
2024 · range 9.00% – 9.92%
GDP per Capita
$5,066 → $5,298
2026 · range $5,142 – $5,454
Risk now 9.7 → forecast 11.4↑ 1.7
Inflation
1.4% → 1.6%
2026 · range -0.1% – 3.3%
Unemployment
3.8% → 3.9%
2026 · range 3.2% – 4.5%
GDP Growth
5.2% → 4.9%
2026 · range -0.6% – 10.4%
Interest Rate
4.82% → 5.00%
2026 · range 4.05% – 5.94%
GDP per Capita
$13,125 → $13,213
2026 · range $12,428 – $13,997
Risk now 13.4 → forecast 16.2↑ 2.8
Inflation
1.7% → 1.7%
2026 · range -0.6% – 4.0%
Unemployment
2.2% → 2.2%
2026 · range 1.7% – 2.8%
GDP Growth
4.4% → 4.5%
2026 · range -3.0% – 12.0%
Interest Rate
7.10% → 7.11%
2020 · range 6.57% – 7.65%
GDP per Capita
$4,171 → $4,308
2026 · range $4,162 – $4,453
Risk now 31.0 → forecast 36.9↑ 5.9
Inflation
8.8% → 9.8%
2026 · range 8.3% – 11.3%
Unemployment
3.8% → 3.5%
2026 · range 2.6% – 4.4%
GDP Growth
3.5% → 3.0%
2026 · range 1.0% – 5.0%
Interest Rate
8.62% → 8.61%
2026 · range 7.13% – 10.10%
GDP per Capita
$2,597 → $2,688
2026 · range $2,507 – $2,869
Risk now 10.8 → forecast 11.9↑ 1.2
Inflation
1.9% → 1.8%
2026 · range -1.4% – 4.9%
Unemployment
5.5% → 5.6%
2026 · range 5.1% – 6.1%
GDP Growth
2.9% → 3.3%
2026 · range 0.0% – 6.6%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$76,970 → $78,651
2026 · range $75,345 – $81,957
Risk now 30.8 → forecast 33.5↑ 2.7
Inflation
7.2% → 7.4%
2026 · range 2.8% – 11.9%
Unemployment
6.0% → 6.2%
2026 · range 5.7% – 6.8%
GDP Growth
0.7% → 0.1%
2026 · range -3.9% – 4.1%
Interest Rate
8.52% → 8.96%
2026 · range 7.73% – 10.20%
GDP per Capita
$22,538 → $23,914
2026 · range $22,549 – $25,279
Risk now 8.2 → forecast 4.6↓ 3.5
Inflation
1.4% → 1.4%
2026 · range 0.3% – 2.4%
Unemployment
2.8% → 2.7%
2026 · range 1.1% – 4.4%
GDP Growth
3.5% → 4.5%
2026 · range -1.2% – 10.3%
Interest Rate
5.18% → 5.37%
2026 · range 5.01% – 5.72%
GDP per Capita
$56,983 → $57,927
2026 · range $55,234 – $60,621
Risk now 10.2 → forecast 14.6↑ 4.4
Inflation
2.5% → 2.5%
2026 · range -4.0% – 9.0%
Unemployment
2.8% → 2.9%
2026 · range 2.6% – 3.2%
GDP Growth
2.6% → 2.1%
2026 · range -2.0% – 6.3%
Interest Rate
4.67% → 4.89%
2026 · range 4.39% – 5.39%
GDP per Capita
$35,917 → $37,508
2026 · range $35,723 – $39,293
Risk now 54.4 → forecast 62.1↑ 7.8
Inflation
14.1% → 19.0%
2026 · range 6.8% – 31.3%
Unemployment
6.8% → 6.4%
2026 · range 5.5% – 7.2%
GDP Growth
4.4% → 3.6%
2026 · range 1.9% – 5.4%
Interest Rate
24.29% → 23.61%
2025 · range 16.74% – 30.47%
GDP per Capita
$3,086 → $3,171
2026 · range $2,475 – $3,867
Risk now 23.9 → forecast 20.4↓ 3.6
Inflation
4.2% → 4.4%
2026 · range 0.4% – 8.4%
Unemployment
9.0% → 9.2%
2026 · range 7.8% – 10.7%
GDP Growth
2.5% → 2.7%
2026 · range -3.9% – 9.3%
Interest Rate
4.18% → 3.16%
2019 · range 2.32% – 4.00%
GDP per Capita
$17,995 → $18,405
2026 · range $16,951 – $19,858
Risk now 23.8 → forecast 26.2↑ 2.4
Inflation
3.5% → 6.5%
2026 · range -5.4% – 18.3%
Unemployment
5.4% → 5.6%
2026 · range 4.8% – 6.5%
GDP Growth
3.7% → 3.0%
2026 · range -0.9% – 6.9%
Interest Rate
8.67% → 8.99%
2022 · range 6.85% – 11.14%
GDP per Capita
$1,596 → $1,572
2026 · range $1,425 – $1,719
Risk now 20.1 → forecast 21.1↑ 1.0
Inflation
1.5% → 1.7%
2026 · range -1.8% – 5.2%
Unemployment
5.1% → 5.4%
2026 · range 3.9% – 7.0%
GDP Growth
3.4% → 3.6%
2026 · range -5.6% – 12.8%
Interest Rate
12.60% → 11.55%
2023 · range 10.29% – 12.81%
GDP per Capita
$9,684 → $9,932
2026 · range $9,090 – $10,775
Risk now 14.5 → forecast 16.1↑ 1.6
Inflation
2.3% → 2.5%
2026 · range -0.7% – 5.7%
Unemployment
6.2% → 6.2%
2026 · range 5.8% – 6.5%
GDP Growth
1.9% → 1.8%
2026 · range -4.4% – 8.0%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$32,082 → $33,198
2026 · range $31,197 – $35,200
Risk now 50.8 → forecast 48.2↓ 2.6
Inflation
23.0% → 27.3%
2026 · range 22.0% – 32.5%
Unemployment
3.1% → 2.6%
2026 · range 1.8% – 3.5%
GDP Growth
4.0% → 4.4%
2026 · range 0.1% – 8.7%
Interest Rate
14.01% → 12.88%
2024 · range 11.13% – 14.63%
GDP per Capita
$1,224 → $969
2026 · range $164 – $1,774
Risk now 29.7 → forecast 31.2↑ 1.5
Inflation
11.4% → 12.0%
2026 · range 8.1% – 16.0%
Unemployment
4.8% → 4.8%
2026 · range 4.4% – 5.1%
GDP Growth
6.5% → 6.9%
2026 · range 3.5% – 10.2%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$14,692 → $15,573
2026 · range $14,438 – $16,708
Risk now 23.5 → forecast 27.8↑ 4.3
Inflation
0.3% → 0.6%
2026 · range -3.0% – 4.3%
Unemployment
9.5% → 9.6%
2026 · range 8.6% – 10.6%
GDP Growth
0.2% → -0.1%
2026 · range -2.3% – 2.1%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$56,149 → $57,004
2026 · range $55,105 – $58,904
Risk now 27.3 → forecast 26.6↓ 0.7
Inflation
1.4% → 2.0%
2026 · range -2.4% – 6.4%
Unemployment
11.6% → 11.5%
2026 · range 10.3% – 12.6%
GDP Growth
3.8% → 4.5%
2026 · range 0.9% – 8.1%
Interest Rate
8.00% → 8.00%
2026 · range 7.96% – 8.04%
GDP per Capita
$6,051 → $6,269
2026 · range $5,638 – $6,900
Risk now 18.3 → forecast 13.9↓ 4.4
Inflation
2.5% → 2.5%
2026 · range -1.6% – 6.6%
Unemployment
8.5% → 7.0%
2026 · range 6.6% – 7.5%
GDP Growth
2.1% → 2.2%
2026 · range -4.7% – 9.2%
Interest Rate
2.25% → 2.25%
Sep 2026 · range 2.24% – 2.26%
GDP per Capita
$26,948 → $27,905
2026 · range $26,020 – $29,790
Risk now 69.8 → forecast 70.2↑ 0.4
Inflation
42.2% → 43.9%
2026 · range 33.2% – 54.5%
Unemployment
8.3% → 7.6%
2026 · range 6.8% – 8.3%
GDP Growth
-2.8% → -1.2%
2026 · range -6.3% – 3.9%
Interest Rate
18.00% → 19.63%
2017 · range 18.19% – 21.07%
GDP per Capita
$3,924 → $4,139
2026 · range $3,239 – $5,039
Risk now 16.9 → forecast 19.0↑ 2.2
Inflation
2.8% → 3.1%
2026 · range 0.6% – 5.7%
Unemployment
5.1% → 5.1%
2026 · range 4.3% – 5.9%
GDP Growth
0.5% → -0.1%
2026 · range -2.4% – 2.1%
Interest Rate
4.76% → 4.57%
2018 · range 4.20% – 4.95%
GDP per Capita
$49,591 → $50,883
2026 · range $48,066 – $53,701
Risk now 22.7 → forecast 27.5↑ 4.8
Inflation
4.4% → 5.3%
2026 · range -2.1% – 12.7%
Unemployment
4.5% → 4.7%
2026 · range 4.3% – 5.1%
GDP Growth
0.5% → -0.5%
2026 · range -5.5% – 4.5%
Interest Rate
8.01% → 10.00%
2026 · range 5.22% – 14.77%
GDP per Capita
$25,907 → $27,244
2026 · range $25,522 – $28,966
Risk now 48.2 → forecast 54.3↑ 6.1
Inflation
0.3% → 1.0%
2026 · range -2.3% – 4.3%
Unemployment
15.5% → 15.8%
2026 · range 14.8% – 16.8%
GDP Growth
-2.2% → -3.3%
2026 · range -11.5% – 5.0%
Interest Rate
12.29% → 11.72%
2016 · range 11.45% – 11.99%
GDP per Capita
$5,410 → $5,465
2026 · range $4,533 – $6,396
Risk now 56.0 → forecast 45.5↓ 10.5
Inflation
12.7% → 11.8%
2026 · range 4.8% – 18.7%
Unemployment
9.8% → 9.8%
2022 · range 9.1% – 10.5%
GDP Growth
1.8% → 4.7%
2026 · range -11.0% – 20.4%
Interest Rate
19.70% → 20.06%
2026 · range 16.15% – 23.97%
GDP per Capita
$5,866 → $6,305
2026 · range $5,927 – $6,684
Risk now 8.6 → forecast 7.5↓ 1.1
Inflation
1.3% → 2.0%
2025 · range -0.7% – 4.8%
Unemployment
0.1% → 0.1%
2026 · range 0.1% – 0.2%
GDP Growth
2.9% → 3.1%
2026 · range 0.3% – 5.8%
Interest Rate
4.75% → 5.15%
2026 · range 3.98% – 6.33%
GDP per Capita
$72,525 → $73,657
2026 · range $60,307 – $87,007
Risk now 30.2 → forecast 34.9↑ 4.7
Inflation
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
Unemployment
1.7% → 1.7%
2026 · range 1.5% – 2.0%
GDP Growth
-1.1% → -1.9%
2025 · range -7.8% – 4.1%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$9,605 → $10,008
2021 · range $9,893 – $10,123
Risk now 23.8 → forecast 23.0↓ 0.8
Inflation
0.7% → 0.9%
2026 · range -2.6% – 4.3%
Unemployment
9.0% → 8.9%
2026 · range 7.9% – 10.0%
GDP Growth
4.6% → 5.2%
2026 · range -0.6% – 11.0%
Interest Rate
n/a → n/a
Not enough history
GDP per Capita
$4,672 → $4,789
2026 · range $4,425 – $5,153
Risk now 36.6 → forecast 31.8↓ 4.8
Inflation
8.8% → 7.5%
2026 · range 6.1% – 8.9%
Unemployment
4.6% → 4.5%
2026 · range 4.1% – 4.9%
GDP Growth
7.7% → 7.9%
2026 · range 5.3% – 10.5%
Interest Rate
23.13% → 23.99%
2025 · range 21.27% – 26.70%
GDP per Capita
$3,968 → $4,196
2026 · range $3,942 – $4,450
Risk now 10.2 → forecast 15.0↑ 4.8
Inflation
2.4% → 2.8%
2026 · range 1.5% – 4.1%
Unemployment
2.2% → 2.2%
2026 · range 1.5% – 2.8%
GDP Growth
2.7% → 1.4%
2026 · range -3.6% – 6.3%
Interest Rate
5.03% → 5.15%
2026 · range 4.41% – 5.88%
GDP per Capita
$32,312 → $32,279
2026 · range $26,939 – $37,618
What the model does — and does not — do
- It extrapolates a damped trend from recent published data. It does not read the news, so it cannot anticipate a rate decision, a war, an election or an oil shock.
- It publishes a range, not just a point. The range widens with the horizon because uncertainty grows; a narrow range means the recent series was stable, not that the forecast is guaranteed.
- Turning points arrive late. Momentum blending shortens the lag but cannot remove it.
- The global forecast risk score (22.7) is the average of country forecasts, so it inherits every one of their errors.