About
About Macroeconomic Risk Index
Coverage
60 countries
123194 published observations across five indicators. Last automatic refresh 2026-08-22 14:25 UTC.
Method
One index, five factors
Inflation, real GDP growth, GDP per capita, unemployment and the policy rate, equally weighted into a 0–100 score.
Track record
1421 back-tested periods
Every forecast the model publishes is later scored against the released data on the forecasts page.
What the platform does
Macro data is abundant but hard to compare: every country publishes on its own calendar, in its own units, with its own quirks. Macroeconomic Risk Index normalises five core indicators onto identical 0–100 scales, combines them with published weights into a single economic risk score, charts the full history behind each value, and projects each series forward with its own transparent model. The result is a view where “is this economy under more strain than that one?” has an answer you can audit line by line.
The platform started as a single-country Kazakhstan dashboard and was rebuilt to be country-agnostic and fully data-driven. Indicators are now retrieved automatically from the World Bank, FRED and OECD APIs on a weekly schedule and stored with their full history, so adding an economy means adding one row to the country registry: scoring, charts, forecasts, back-tests, rankings and comparisons all follow automatically.
What it is not
- Not a government body, central bank, rating agency or licensed adviser.
- Not investment advice, and not a default or credit-risk model.
- Not a republisher of other people's forecasts. Third-party outlooks are only ever quoted as clearly-labelled editorial context, never as this platform's numbers.
- Not a real-time feed. Snapshot datasets are refreshed manually and each carries its compilation date.
Data integrity rules
- Actual and forecast values are always visually and textually separated.
- A missing release is shown as “Data unavailable”, never interpolated or invented.
- Every value carries its period, source and last-updated date.
- Forecast accuracy is published alongside the forecasts, including the periods where the model was clearly wrong.
Currently tracked
- 🇺🇸 United States · 11.1
- 🇨🇳 China · 13.5
- 🇩🇪 Germany · 11.8
- 🇯🇵 Japan · 12.2
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom · 14.8
- 🇮🇳 India · 14.6
- 🇫🇷 France · 18.7
- 🇮🇹 Italy · 16.6
- 🇷🇺 Russia · 35.1
- 🇧🇷 Brazil · 36.2
- 🇨🇦 Canada · 14.3
- 🇦🇺 Australia · 13.6
- 🇲🇽 Mexico · 21.1
- 🇪🇸 Spain · 19.4
- 🇰🇷 South Korea · 11.8
- 🇹🇷 Turkey · 53.5
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia · 12.5
- 🇳🇱 Netherlands · 11.2
- 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia · 5.5
- 🇨🇭 Switzerland · 14.9
- 🇵🇱 Poland · 11.8
- 🇮🇪 Ireland · 3.0
- 🇧🇪 Belgium · 14.4
- 🇸🇪 Sweden · 22.3
- 🇮🇱 Israel · 9.2
- 🇦🇷 Argentina · 57.7
- 🇸🇬 Singapore · 5.9
- 🇦🇹 Austria · 16.5
- 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates · 6.9
- 🇳🇴 Norway · 15.2
- 🇹🇭 Thailand · 16.7
- 🇨🇴 Colombia · 32.8
- 🇻🇳 Vietnam · 13.7
- 🇲🇾 Malaysia · 9.7
- 🇵🇭 Philippines · 13.4
- 🇧🇩 Bangladesh · 31.0
- 🇩🇰 Denmark · 10.8
- 🇷🇴 Romania · 30.8
- 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR · 8.2
- 🇨🇿 Czechia · 10.2
- 🇪🇬 Egypt · 54.4
- 🇨🇱 Chile · 23.9
- 🇵🇰 Pakistan · 23.8
- 🇵🇪 Peru · 20.1
- 🇵🇹 Portugal · 14.5
- 🇳🇬 Nigeria · 50.8
- 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan · 29.7
- 🇫🇮 Finland · 23.5
- 🇩🇿 Algeria · 27.3
- 🇬🇷 Greece · 18.3
- 🇮🇷 Iran · 69.8
- 🇳🇿 New Zealand · 16.9
- 🇭🇺 Hungary · 22.7
- 🇮🇶 Iraq · 48.2
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine · 56.0
- 🇶🇦 Qatar · 8.6
- 🇨🇺 Cuba · 30.2
- 🇲🇦 Morocco · 23.8
- 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan · 36.6
- 🇰🇼 Kuwait · 10.2
More economies are added as their datasets are compiled and reviewed. Read the methodology for the full formulas, scales and limitations.