Country dashboard
🇧🇷Brazil economic risk
Americas · Currency BRL · Retrieved automatically from official statistical APIs · Last retrieval 2026-08-22 14:19 UTC
Economic risk score
Low risk (20–40)
- Previous period score
- 34.3
- Change
- ↑ 1.9
- Forecast score (3 periods)
- 29.4
- Cyclical risk (short term)
- 35.1
- Structural risk (long term)
- 45.9
- Data coverage
- 100%
Contribution by factor (weight × sub-score)
- Inflation 30% weightsub-score 20 → +6.0 pts
- Unemployment 25% weightsub-score 17 → +4.4 pts
- GDP Growth 20% weightsub-score 31 → +6.2 pts
- Interest Rate 15% weightsub-score 100 → +15.0 pts
- GDP per Capita 10% weight · structuralsub-score 46 → +4.6 pts
Brazil is tracked with the same five weighted indicators as every other economy on the platform. All values are retrieved automatically from official international statistical APIs; anything the sources have not published is shown as unavailable.
Historical risk score
The same weighted formula applied to every year of published data for Brazil. Shaded bands mark documented crisis periods, so you can see whether the score deteriorated when the economy did.
- Global financial crisis · 2007-12 → 2009-06 · Investopedia — Financial Crisis
- Brazilian recession · 2015-01 → 2016-12 · Investopedia — Financial Crisis
- COVID-19 shock · 2020-01 → 2020-12 · Investopedia — Financial Crisis
- Post-pandemic inflation shock · 2021-07 → 2023-06 · Investopedia — Financial Crisis
Indicators — select a card to inspect
Inflation (headline CPI)
Inflation · Source: World Bank · Frequency: Annual · Series updated 2026-08-22T14:19:02.069+00:00
Actual · 2025
5.0%
Previous · 2024
4.4%
Independent Model Forecast
Produced by this platform's own damped-trend model on the 8 most recent published observations, at the series' own annual frequency. Range is an ~80% interval from the fit's residual spread. Recomputed on every data refresh; last source retrieval 2026-08-22 14:25 UTC.
| Period | Forecast | Range | vs latest actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9% | 1.8% – 7.9% | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 4.5% | 0.2% – 8.8% | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 4.1% | -1.2% – 9.4% | -0.9 |
Role in the risk score
Absolute deviation of headline CPI inflation from a 2% price-stability anchor. 0pp deviation = 0 risk, 15pp deviation or more = 100 risk. Higher inflation raises risk; deflation is penalised as well.
Country context
Consumer price inflation, annual %. Risk rises with absolute deviation from a 2% price-stability anchor, so deflation is penalised too.
Forecast accuracy — model vs released data
Walk-forward back-test: for each period the model is re-fitted using only the data available before that period, then compared with the value later published. MAE is the mean absolute error, RMSE the root mean squared error.
Inflation
MAE 2.61 · RMSE 3.27 · 5 back-tested periods
| Period | Model forecast | Actual released | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2.8% | 8.3% | -5.5 |
| 2022 | 7.3% | 9.3% | -2.0 |
| 2023 | 8.8% | 4.6% | +4.3 |
| 2024 | 5.5% | 4.4% | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 4.8% | 5.0% | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 4.9% | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
Unemployment
MAE 1.91 · RMSE 2.54 · 5 back-tested periods
| Period | Model forecast | Actual released | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 14.6% | 13.2% | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 14.2% | 9.2% | +5.0 |
| 2023 | 10.1% | 7.9% | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 7.6% | 6.8% | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 5.8% | 6.0% | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 5.0% | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
GDP Growth
MAE 2.47 · RMSE 3.71 · 5 back-tested periods
| Period | Model forecast | Actual released | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -3.2% | 4.8% | -8.0 |
| 2022 | 4.3% | 3.0% | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 3.8% | 3.2% | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 4.7% | 3.4% | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 3.4% | 2.3% | +1.2 |
| 2026 | 2.8% | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
Interest Rate
MAE 5.02 · RMSE 6.38 · 5 back-tested periods
| Period | Model forecast | Actual released | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 30.59% | 30.02% | +0.57 |
| 2022 | 28.92% | 39.40% | -10.48 |
| 2023 | 35.24% | 43.60% | -8.36 |
| 2024 | 41.14% | 40.23% | +0.92 |
| 2025 | 40.55% | 45.33% | -4.79 |
| 2026 | 45.87% | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
GDP per Capita
MAE 1051.38 · RMSE 1289.21 · 5 back-tested periods
| Period | Model forecast | Actual released | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $6,496 | $7,973 | -1477 |
| 2022 | $7,340 | $9,281 | -1942 |
| 2023 | $8,872 | $10,378 | -1505 |
| 2024 | $10,340 | $10,311 | +29 |
| 2025 | $10,409 | $10,713 | -304 |
| 2026 | $10,984 | Data unavailable | Data unavailable |
Where the risk score is heading
Re-scoring Brazil on the model's own 3-period-ahead forecasts gives 29.4 versus 36.2 today. The largest single mover is labour-market risk, which pushes the score lower. GDP per capita is held flat over this horizon because it is an annual structural measure.